Eli Tomac’s dominant outing at Freestone one week ago established this year's 250 Class as a wide open division in the chase for the title. Sure, Blake Baggett has arguably been the most consistently fast guy through the first two weeks, but he showed last week that he still needs some work on his starts if he is to get the results he should. Tomac wasn’t all that great out of the gate either in Texas, but the key to his triumph was that he was ahead of Baggett in each moto.
While both Baggett and Tomac tend to be up and down on starts, currently possessing a starting average of 8.0 and 13.3, respectively, they have shown the sheer pace to move through the field effectively and assert themselves as the riders to beat. Baggett’s average finish is a 1.5, while Tomac’s is a 4.0, which vaulted upward following last week’s moto sweep. The differential as to where these two start and finish is remarkably high, meaning they’re doing more work than they necessarily need to.
On the flip side, Ken Roczen has taken a steady approach to his first season in the U.S. and so far, it’s paying off. The KTM up-and-comer has a starting average of 4.3 and with back-to-back podium efforts to start the summer, his finishing average is a spot-on 3.0. Ultimately, that means Roczen is essentially staying put and not overly exerting himself.
Keep in mind that nearly every week is an entirely new experience for Roczen, and he’s learning every single lap. As his confidence continues to grow, so should his speed and his results. Dean Wilson proved last year that consistency can win championships and it looks like that will be the approach of Roczen, at least in the season's early stages.
Justin Barcia isn’t far behind either. He was uncharacteristically bad out of the gate in each moto last week, which hindered his results. He still boasts a finishing average of 3.5, but his starting average dropped to 9.8, putting him in a position where it can be hard to keep pace with the leaders, even if he is able to move forward.
These four riders have made the biggest impression through the first four motos of the season and you should expect them being the main players in the title fight all the way into September. What’s unique is that all four bring a different approach to competition; that could play out in a variety of ways, and will hopefully result in a captivating battle for the championship.
Baggett and Tomac are somewhat similar. They both like to push the pace and ride hard, but are also somewhat held back by their inconsistencies. Should either grab a holeshot, they have the ability to check out on the field. However, if they don’t, they still possess the speed to fight their way to the front, but that won't always guarantee success -- they've gotten a bit lucky the past two weeks.
Baggett does things on the bike that no one else in the division can do consistently. He is balls to the wall all the time. It’s exciting to watch and so far it’s working.
Tomac is a bulldog rider who will push and push, but won’t go beyond the edge. He likes to attack, but won’t necessarily put himself in danger.
Roczen is smooth and very consistent. He paces himself well, thanks to the 35-minute motos he’s used to riding in Europe. That gives him the ability to run where he’s comfortable and possibly push a bit harder should he need to. He’s proving to be a calculating rider and it will be interesting to see how long he chooses to take that approach, which will likely be influenced by his rivals. Currently, Roczen is second in the championship and will race at the only track on the schedule he’s familiar with at Thunder Valley today. It’s an ideal opportunity to make a statement.
As for Barcia, we’ve seen him become a more mature rider this season and it’s definitely carrying over into the Nationals. Barcia looks more tactical in his approach, reeling in the “Bam Bam” mentality a little bit while taking his opportunities as they come. Arguably the best starter in the class, he has the ability to steal an early advantage in any moto and has the experience to hold it once out front. He will force the other three riders to be at their best every time the gate drops and in turn, could be the most dynamic figure of this foursome because of it.
A lot can happen over the next 20 motos, but the key to any of these riders’ championship hopes will be to minimize mistakes and, more importantly, take advantage of any opportunities they are given. As four of the fastest rising stars in motocross continue to wage war out on the track, we will all be privileged to see them lay it all on the line for the most coveted championship in the sport.