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AMA Pro Superbike
AMA SBK: 2013 Championship Prediction Countdown - #2 & #1
The 2013 AMA Pro Superbike season has finally arrived and with it comes SPEED.com's final predictions for the season's champion.
(Photo: Brian J Nelson)
PROGRAMMING NOTE: The AMA Pro Superbike season opener will air on SPEED on Friday, March 15 at 6:00pm ET with Race 2 airing Sunday evening at 9:00pm. The Daytona 200 will air on SPEED at 1:30pm ET on Sunday, March 17. The Vance & Hines HD race and the twin SuperSport races will air LIVE on SPEED2.
The AMA Pro Superbikes are just minutes away from taking to the famed high banks of Daytona International Speedway and officially kick off the 2013 season.
Before we name our championship picks, let's review #5-#3:
Evan Williams
5. Danny Eslick - Jordan Suzuki
4. Martin Cardenas - Yoshimura Suzuki
3. Josh Herrin - Monster Energy Graves Yamaha
Chris Martin
5. Danny Eslick - Jordan Suzuki
4. Martin Cardenas - Yoshimura Suzuki
3. Roger Hayden - National Guard Jordan Suzuki
Evan Williams: Runner-Up: Roger Hayden - National Guard Jordan Suzuki, '13 Champion: Josh Hayes - Monster Energy Graves Yamaha
Roger Hayden got his first win in 2012 at Miami but the season was disappointing in some ways for him as Josh Hayes and Yamaha were so far out in front of everyone. Hayden rallied to earn third in points.
The National Guard squad took a chance on Hayden after a bad season in World Superbike and it paid off. Hayden has proven he can be a number one rider for the Michael Jordan Motorsports team the past two years and Hayden tempered the aggressiveness he had into his earlier forays in Superbike that saw him injured too often. Hayden has the drive to win and has developed the skill to ride a Superbike the right way. He needs to continue to up his game and get better with setting up the bike and finding the pace earlier in the weekend if he is to challenge Hayes.
The big question is whether the team can give him a good bike most of the time and catch up to Yamaha.
And what can you say about Hayes? He was almost perfect last year, winning 16 races and destroying the competition. With an improved bike, Hayes couldn't be topped. The man is a winning machine. Hayes might win 16 races again.
No one expects Hayes to drop off any in 2013. He waited too long to get his Superbike gig to back down or take it easy. His level will remain at a lofty perch. The only question is if the rest can catch up.
Hayes totally gets his way when no one can run his pace. Last year, the race was over when he hit the front. But if someone can run similar lap times, it is a different game.
It's probably going to be championship number four for Hayes.
Chris Martin: Runner-Up: Josh Herrin - Monster Energy Graves Yamaha, '13 Champion: Josh Hayes - Monster Energy Graves Yamaha
The pressure is on Josh Herrin, who is facing what will most likely be the most important season of his career. With teammate Josh Hayes the series' dominant rider and locked down at Yamaha through 2014 and superstar-in-the-making Cameron Beaubier waiting in the wings, Herrin is going to have to take a major step for in 2013 and impress mightily.
A second-place result in the championship may not be enough. Consider that the series' two most recent runners-up -- Blake Young and Tommy Hayden -- combined for 21 victories and twice came within a handful of points of beating Hayes for the title since 2010 and now both men are on the outside looking in.
However, the sort of leap forward that Herrin needs to make is not unprecedented. Riders are expected to take their biggest step forward during their second year in the class, putting all they learned during their rookie season to good use. Consider how thoroughly outclassed rookie Ben Spies was by teammate Mat Mladin in 2005, gifted just a single win in a race that saw Mladin struck down by a mechanical issue compared to the Aussie's double-digit tally of victories. However, sophomore Spies came out swinging in 2006, claiming ten victories and the championship over the once-unbeatable legend.
Herrin doesn't need to close the pace gap entirely this year. He just needs to be close enough to cling onto Hayes a la Alex Criville or Blake Young and make things happen on the final lap. Anything short of multiple victories and a serious run at the championship will likely be viewed a disappointment.
And while such a step forward is not without precedent -- that doesn't mean it will be easy. Hayes' margin was so great over the field in 2012, it's difficult to imagine him falling back to the pack this season. Hayes' long, hard path to Superbike stardom effectively insulates him from growing complacent, having been blessed/cursed with the racers' equivalent to ugly duckling syndrome.
After cleaning up in '12, the Mississippian was already contemplating the ways in which he could improve his riding during the offseason. Expect Hayes to do everything he can to continue making his competition believe that they are beaten before they even arrive to the racetrack.
Short of injury, Hayes will become the first man to win four consecutive AMA Pro Superbike titles in the championship's history.
SPEED.com Motorcycle Racing Editor Chris Martin saw Eddie Lawson win aboard a Kawasaki the first time he attended an AMA Superbike race and witnessed Ben Bostrom win a World Superbike race aboard a V&H Ducati the first time he worked one. He has written about AMA SBK, WSBK, and MotoGP for SPEED.com since 2003. Chris is now on Twitter.
The AMA Pro Superbikes are just minutes away from taking to the famed high banks of Daytona International Speedway and officially kick off the 2013 season.
Before we name our championship picks, let's review #5-#3:
Evan Williams
5. Danny Eslick - Jordan Suzuki
4. Martin Cardenas - Yoshimura Suzuki
3. Josh Herrin - Monster Energy Graves Yamaha
Chris Martin
5. Danny Eslick - Jordan Suzuki
4. Martin Cardenas - Yoshimura Suzuki
3. Roger Hayden - National Guard Jordan Suzuki
Evan Williams: Runner-Up: Roger Hayden - National Guard Jordan Suzuki, '13 Champion: Josh Hayes - Monster Energy Graves Yamaha
Roger Hayden got his first win in 2012 at Miami but the season was disappointing in some ways for him as Josh Hayes and Yamaha were so far out in front of everyone. Hayden rallied to earn third in points.
The National Guard squad took a chance on Hayden after a bad season in World Superbike and it paid off. Hayden has proven he can be a number one rider for the Michael Jordan Motorsports team the past two years and Hayden tempered the aggressiveness he had into his earlier forays in Superbike that saw him injured too often. Hayden has the drive to win and has developed the skill to ride a Superbike the right way. He needs to continue to up his game and get better with setting up the bike and finding the pace earlier in the weekend if he is to challenge Hayes.
The big question is whether the team can give him a good bike most of the time and catch up to Yamaha.
And what can you say about Hayes? He was almost perfect last year, winning 16 races and destroying the competition. With an improved bike, Hayes couldn't be topped. The man is a winning machine. Hayes might win 16 races again.
No one expects Hayes to drop off any in 2013. He waited too long to get his Superbike gig to back down or take it easy. His level will remain at a lofty perch. The only question is if the rest can catch up.
Hayes totally gets his way when no one can run his pace. Last year, the race was over when he hit the front. But if someone can run similar lap times, it is a different game.
It's probably going to be championship number four for Hayes.
Chris Martin: Runner-Up: Josh Herrin - Monster Energy Graves Yamaha, '13 Champion: Josh Hayes - Monster Energy Graves Yamaha
The pressure is on Josh Herrin, who is facing what will most likely be the most important season of his career. With teammate Josh Hayes the series' dominant rider and locked down at Yamaha through 2014 and superstar-in-the-making Cameron Beaubier waiting in the wings, Herrin is going to have to take a major step for in 2013 and impress mightily.
A second-place result in the championship may not be enough. Consider that the series' two most recent runners-up -- Blake Young and Tommy Hayden -- combined for 21 victories and twice came within a handful of points of beating Hayes for the title since 2010 and now both men are on the outside looking in.
However, the sort of leap forward that Herrin needs to make is not unprecedented. Riders are expected to take their biggest step forward during their second year in the class, putting all they learned during their rookie season to good use. Consider how thoroughly outclassed rookie Ben Spies was by teammate Mat Mladin in 2005, gifted just a single win in a race that saw Mladin struck down by a mechanical issue compared to the Aussie's double-digit tally of victories. However, sophomore Spies came out swinging in 2006, claiming ten victories and the championship over the once-unbeatable legend.
Herrin doesn't need to close the pace gap entirely this year. He just needs to be close enough to cling onto Hayes a la Alex Criville or Blake Young and make things happen on the final lap. Anything short of multiple victories and a serious run at the championship will likely be viewed a disappointment.
And while such a step forward is not without precedent -- that doesn't mean it will be easy. Hayes' margin was so great over the field in 2012, it's difficult to imagine him falling back to the pack this season. Hayes' long, hard path to Superbike stardom effectively insulates him from growing complacent, having been blessed/cursed with the racers' equivalent to ugly duckling syndrome.
After cleaning up in '12, the Mississippian was already contemplating the ways in which he could improve his riding during the offseason. Expect Hayes to do everything he can to continue making his competition believe that they are beaten before they even arrive to the racetrack.
Short of injury, Hayes will become the first man to win four consecutive AMA Pro Superbike titles in the championship's history.
SPEED.com Motorcycle Racing Editor Chris Martin saw Eddie Lawson win aboard a Kawasaki the first time he attended an AMA Superbike race and witnessed Ben Bostrom win a World Superbike race aboard a V&H Ducati the first time he worked one. He has written about AMA SBK, WSBK, and MotoGP for SPEED.com since 2003. Chris is now on Twitter.
AMA SBK Miller Motorsports Park
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