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AMA Pro Superbike
AMA SBK: WWRD?
What would be the outcome if Josh Hayes followed the examples set by Valentino Rossi and Ryan Dungey in search of a new challenge?
Monster Energy Graves Yamaha's Josh Hayes (Photo: Evan Williams)
PROGRAMMING NOTE: This weekend's AMA Pro Road Racing race action from Homestead-Miami Speedway will air on SPEED Saturday and Sunday evening starting at Midnight ET.
From a purely statistical standpoint, it's getting harder and harder to argue that Josh Hayes' 2012 AMA Pro Superbike campaign isn't the greatest the series has ever seen. By the time we leave Miami-Homestead Speedway, Hayes very likely will have extended his series records for most wins in a season and wins-in-succession, grabbed the all-time mark for poles-in-a-row, tied Miguel DuHamel for second most wins in Superbike history, and moved equal with an elite group for second all-time with his third AMA Pro Superbike title.
However, it's all about context. You'll occasionally hear the old-timers dismiss Hayes' modern-day achievements, citing lessened factory participation, a relatively shallow talent pool, and a generally down era of AMA Pro Road Racing during which the Yamaha ace has racked up his numbers.
Whether that's a fair assessment is debatable. Obviously, the number of big-money teams competing is down compared with the high point of a decade ago, but in terms of sheer talent it's likely not all that far removed from where it stood during the Mladin/Spies-era and probably about on par with that of DuHamel's best years.
Sure, there's no Mat or Ben for Hayes to contend with, but then again, there was no Josh for them to deal with either (other than a single year of genuine overlap with Mladin, in which Hayes acquitted himself quite nicely once he found his Superbike footing).
You'll often see mention of the best NFL teams being blessed with a weak strength of schedule and bad teams saddled with a strong strength of schedule, as if that's the reason for their success or failure. However, what that ignores is that teams make their own schedules weak or strong by either piling a bunch of losses on their opponents by beating them (weakening their own SoS) or artificially inflating it by getting pummeled repeatedly (increasing their own SoS).
Hayes is doing exactly that at the moment, weakening the appearance of his rivals through his mastery. Is his competition actually inept or is he just making them look (or perform) that way?
Blake Young is a gifted racer with some impressive numbers of his own. His 13 career Superbike wins put him even with Doug Polen's career tally and better the marks of Doug Chandler, Anthony Gobert, Kevin Schwantz, and Aaron Yates. However, Young is lost right now and he'll tell you as much if you ask him. But he's only lost because he's desperately searching for a way to up his pace in order to track down Hayes. And when you're starting from the extremely high level that Young brought into '12, any possible change presents a great deal more room to go down then there is to go up.
It's a similar story throughout the field. Ben Bostrom is a former Superbike series champion (yes, he's uneven, but he's always been uneven), Roger Hayden and Danny Eslick are former support class champs, Josh Herrin is a loaded with ability, and so on down the order.
These are strong riders even if they look weak in comparison, either because Hayes is simply that much better or they all off their games in search of a response (and in all likelihood, some combination of the two).
If there's anything that the paddock should have learned from the most recent era of similar dominance, it's that you don't beat them, you join them.
From a purely statistical standpoint, it's getting harder and harder to argue that Josh Hayes' 2012 AMA Pro Superbike campaign isn't the greatest the series has ever seen. By the time we leave Miami-Homestead Speedway, Hayes very likely will have extended his series records for most wins in a season and wins-in-succession, grabbed the all-time mark for poles-in-a-row, tied Miguel DuHamel for second most wins in Superbike history, and moved equal with an elite group for second all-time with his third AMA Pro Superbike title.
However, it's all about context. You'll occasionally hear the old-timers dismiss Hayes' modern-day achievements, citing lessened factory participation, a relatively shallow talent pool, and a generally down era of AMA Pro Road Racing during which the Yamaha ace has racked up his numbers.
Whether that's a fair assessment is debatable. Obviously, the number of big-money teams competing is down compared with the high point of a decade ago, but in terms of sheer talent it's likely not all that far removed from where it stood during the Mladin/Spies-era and probably about on par with that of DuHamel's best years.
Sure, there's no Mat or Ben for Hayes to contend with, but then again, there was no Josh for them to deal with either (other than a single year of genuine overlap with Mladin, in which Hayes acquitted himself quite nicely once he found his Superbike footing).
You'll often see mention of the best NFL teams being blessed with a weak strength of schedule and bad teams saddled with a strong strength of schedule, as if that's the reason for their success or failure. However, what that ignores is that teams make their own schedules weak or strong by either piling a bunch of losses on their opponents by beating them (weakening their own SoS) or artificially inflating it by getting pummeled repeatedly (increasing their own SoS).
Hayes is doing exactly that at the moment, weakening the appearance of his rivals through his mastery. Is his competition actually inept or is he just making them look (or perform) that way?
Blake Young is a gifted racer with some impressive numbers of his own. His 13 career Superbike wins put him even with Doug Polen's career tally and better the marks of Doug Chandler, Anthony Gobert, Kevin Schwantz, and Aaron Yates. However, Young is lost right now and he'll tell you as much if you ask him. But he's only lost because he's desperately searching for a way to up his pace in order to track down Hayes. And when you're starting from the extremely high level that Young brought into '12, any possible change presents a great deal more room to go down then there is to go up.
It's a similar story throughout the field. Ben Bostrom is a former Superbike series champion (yes, he's uneven, but he's always been uneven), Roger Hayden and Danny Eslick are former support class champs, Josh Herrin is a loaded with ability, and so on down the order.
These are strong riders even if they look weak in comparison, either because Hayes is simply that much better or they all off their games in search of a response (and in all likelihood, some combination of the two).
If there's anything that the paddock should have learned from the most recent era of similar dominance, it's that you don't beat them, you join them.
AMA SBK Miller Motorsports Park
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