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MOTOGP: Defining Season For Ben Spies
Just how good is Ben Spies? History suggests that we'll find out in 2012.
Chris Martin  |  Posted April 06, 2012   Iowa City, IA
Yamaha Factory Racing's Ben Spies (Photo: Yamaha Racing)
PROGRAMMING NOTE: The 2012 MotoGP season opener from Doha, Qatar will air on SPEED on Sunday, April 8 at 3:00pm ET. Qualifying will air LIVE all season long on SPEED2. #SPEEDmoto

On the eve of the 2012 MotoGP World Championship American title hopeful Ben Spies told SPEED.com that he has no excuses not to fight for the championship this year.

It's good thing he feels that way because he's right.

While most pundits expect this year to take shape as a two-man (Casey Stoner vs. Jorge Lorenz) affair, barring injury or some other unforeseen obstacle, 2012 should be the year we find out exactly how good Ben Spies is… and likely ever will be.

I've written about the development curve of racers before. Actually, I've previously commented on this particular phenomenon, albeit with an AMA Superbike focus.

While it's common for competitors to talk about a continual learning process, history shows the reality to be somewhat different. In fact, there's an overwhelming trend that may be a bit disconcerting to those prospective 'late bloomers' out there (of which there are actually precious few genuine examples).

A couple years ago I ran down a a long-list of AMA Pro Superbike standouts and the following trend held remarkably true. The same applies to MotoGP as well.

Given a legitimate opportunity with decent equipment and backing, the following process almost invariably takes place:

By the end of a rider's first season on competitive equipment, their potential to show front-running speed (or not) is demonstrated.

By the end of their second season, they've maxed out in terms of sheer pace (albeit not always consistently so).

By their third (or perhaps fourth) season, they are as complete a championship contender as they will ever be. They are unlikely to get any faster, any more consistent, or any 'better.' What further separates the good, the great, and the legendary, is the ability to stay healthy, fit, motivated, and focused in order to maintain this peak level for as long as possible.

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Chris Martin

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