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MOTOGP: Noyes’ Notebook - Crunching Numbers
Dennis Noyes analyses the Sepang test in order to get a sense of the pecking order that could materialize at the dawn of the 1000cc MotoGP era.
Dennis Noyes  |  Posted March 01, 2012   Borrego Springs, CA

Ducati Team's Valentino Rossi (Photo: Ducati Corse)

Of course the time that always makes the headlines is the fastest lap. Stoner lapped in 2.00.473, just 0.175 quicker than Pedrosa, 0.329 faster than Dovizioso on the Tech3 Yamaha, and 0.404 faster than Lorenzo. Cal Crutchlow was a strong fifth just over a half second slower than Stoner and we had Alvaro Bautista (Gresini Honda) and Ben Spies (Yamaha) both less than a second back of Stoner. That’s eight bikes in the same second. (Spies was actually quicker on day two with a 2.01.285.)

But what about pace? Since Honda did not go out and do a race simulation, we can attempt to get an idea of the true pace of the rider/bike combinations by running a simple stat for the final day. We have taken the number of flying laps completed by each rider on a factory prototype and looked at the percentage of laps that each did under the 2.02 barrier.

Here goes:

1. Stoner/Honda (20 of 24) 83%
2. Lorenzo/Yamaha (33 of 44) 75%
3. Pedrosa/Honda (15 of 31) 48%
4. Bautista/Honda (14 of 40) 35%
5. Dovizioso/Yamaha (14 of 46) 30%
6. Crutchlow/Yamaha (12 of 46) 26%
7. Spies/Yamaha (3 of 20) 15%
8. Rossi/Ducati (6 of 43) 14%
9. Barberá/Ducati (4 of 51) 8%
10. Bradl/Honda (3 of 43) 7%
11. Hayden/Ducati (2 of 31) 6%.

But this is not cold, hard science either. If we look back at day two before it started to rain, we see that Spies, quickest on the day, put in five sub 2.02 laps out of his 16 flying laps in the dry (31%)

So what does it all mean? It seems to mean that only Lorenzo on the Yamaha is able to run a similar sort of pace as Stoner on the Honda, and that he did it in a full race simulation while the Australian did his laps in short stints, never longer than four consecutive laps.

What about Ducati? It was surprising to see Hector Barberá as the fastest Ducati rider, encouraging to see that Nicky Hayden was able to complete 138 laps over the three days following his recent shoulder surgery, and disappointing to see Valentino Rossi 10th, over a second back of Stoner and a tick slower than MotoGP rookie and reigning World Moto2 Champion, Stefan Bradl.

The gaps should be closer at Jerez, a shorter track with less of a 'Honda Lane' for putting down big horsepower. The next batch of changes that Rossi has requested will not be ready for either the Jerez IRTA tests or the opening round in Qatar, so it looks as if Ducati has closed the gap a bit, but not yet enough to be fully competitive.

The CRT bikes that made it to Sepang improved. American Colin Edwards on the Suter BMW was 3.2 seconds off Stoner's time and just over two seconds slower that the last of the factory bikes. The BQR Kawasaki bikes, just beginning to come to terms with electronics, were over six seconds slower than Stoner and both were running a pace that would have seen them lapped.

Where would the Aprilia-powered CRTs have been? All that will be seen when the entire grid of MotoGP bikes tests together at Jerez (March 23-25). Then the season gets underway at the wide, fast Losail circuit in Qatar…well, so long as there isn’t a war going on in the Persian Gulf by then.


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