Casey Stoner’s startling decision to retire at the end of this season has suddenly thrown the 2013 riders’ market wide open. Honda, unable to win a single title in the 800cc class until they signed Stoner away from Ducati, must have believed they were standing at the dawn of a new dynasty. Stoner seemed poised to emulate fellow Australian Mick Doohan, winner of five straight titles in the premier (then 500cc) class from 1994 through 1998.
After winning in dominant fashion on the 800cc, Stoner was fastest throughout the preseason and opened the new 1000cc era with two wins in the first three races. Then came the decision to retire followed by a third place behind Jorge Lorenzo on the Yamaha (now the points leader by 8) and Valentino Rossi on a Ducati that, for the moment, is only fast in the wet. (Or would that Ducati still be a winner in the right hands? We’ll never know the answer to that one.)
So now what? Who can replace the rider who dominated the five-year history of the MotoGP 800cc class, and who, in spite of slipping back to second in the points behind Lorenzo at Le Mans, is contending for what would be his third and last MotoGP title (unless he is tempted back later).
In Le Mans, Rossi managed to avoid a repetition of the error last year in Jerez that allowed Casey to reproach the Italian by telling him “Your ambition outweighs your talent,” beating the Aussie for second in the wet. With Stoner retiring at the top of his game and at the peak of his career, one might suggest that the inverse is true -- that his talent now outweighs his ambition.
What really happened between the opening of the season and Round 4 in Le Mans to induce this 26 year-old superstar to announce premature retirement?
Here’s what I think and why I think it: This was not out of a clear, blue sky. Stoner has often said that he did not intend to hang around into his thirties, that he did not intend to continue racing when he lost his passion for the sport. But only those very close to him knew that his passion for the sport was already waning even as he stormed to the title last year.
I believe he didn't jump so much as he was pushed… pushed to do something now that he was probably already determined to do later. With all the big guns in MotoGP running out of contract at the end of this season, Honda needed to get Stoner under contract. The question was not whether it would be a one or a two-year deal. Honda ran Doohan under a series of single-year contracts and was prepared to do the same with Stoner. Money does not seem to have been a problem either, from what insiders tell me about Stoner’s previous deals. Stoner in 2007 was probably the poorest paid World Champion of modern times (relative to inflation), but he had been Ducati’s third choice when they signed him at the end of his 2006 rookie year. Unlike other forms of professional sport, we are not told the true salaries of riders, so I prefer not to quote rumors, but Stoner has repeatedly said that money was not a factor in his decision to quit.
In a sincere-sounding soliloquy that took him to the brink of tears at the Thursday pre-event press conference at Le Mans, he gave a series of reasons for hanging it up after this season, citing his desire to enjoy his life as a father and husband, his displeasure with the direction technical regulations seemed to be taking in MotoGP, and even his bitterness over doubts about his reasons (lactose intolerance) for missing races in 2009.
He seemed especially displeased that two European publications had come out just before the Portuguese Gran Prix with orchestrated 'exclusives' stating that he was about to retire. In Estoril, Portugal, Stoner vehemently denied that he was planning to retire at the end of the present season or anytime really soon and publically castigated a Solo Moto writer (one of the two southern European weeklies that ran the “Stoner to Quit” story on their cover) at the pre-event press conference, telling the Spanish journalist, “You shouldn’t read the stuff you produce.” (The other publication to share the news leaked from inside Honda was Italy’s Motosprint.)
He then went out and won, taking a one-point lead in the points standings over Yamaha’s Jorge Lorenzo. So when we all got to Le Mans, the press corps dutifully assembled in the press conference room was expecting to hear the usual talk about chatter, rain settings, and perhaps an update on Cal Crutchlow’s rodent problems (he had left his motorhome for a hotel in Jerez due to the scurrying about of what he described as a “very big mouse” that evaded traps in his motorhome).