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SX: Countdown To A1 - #5 Justin Barcia
Will rookie Justin Barcia outperform teammate Trey Canard and transform the 'Big Four' into the 'Big Five' in 2013?
Brandon Short  |  Posted January 01, 2013   Anaheim, CA
GEICO Honda's Justin Barcia (Photo: Hoppenworld.com)
PROGRAMMING NOTE: The 2013 Monster Energy Supercross season opener will air LIVE on SPEED on Saturday, January 5th at 9:30 ET.

Following one of the most unusual seasons in the history of Monster Energy Supercross that saw injuries become more defining than race results, the 2013 season is virtually upon us, with the gate set to drop inside Anaheim’s Angel Stadium on Saturday night.

The injury-riddled season of 2012 ultimately took down all of the top championship competitors; as a result, most the year’s headline riders are aiming to bounce back after several months away from the action. While the surefire showdown between the “Big Four” will once again be the foundation of the championship, their respective storylines will also be of great interest.

Barring a repeat of last year's carnage, we should be in store for an incredible 2013 campaign, one that could surpass even the memorable 2011 season.

Leading up to the season opener, we'll once again predict the championship top five here at SPEED.com, starting with #5…

5th – Justin Barcia

This was one of the toughest choices to make because it ultimately means someone is going to get left out. I have no reason to think the “Big Four” won’t continue their dominant trend, which leaves just this spot open for a sleeper pick. In 2011, it was Trey Canard, while last year you could argue it was Davi Millsaps.

After claiming back-to-back SX250 titles, Justin Barcia will make his move up into the premier class full time in 2013 at Factory Honda alongside Canard. Barcia made his team debut at the Monster Energy Cup last October and emerged with a shocking victory that served as an early warning of what he could be capable of accomplishing this season in Supercross.

Barcia is an exceptional Supercross rider, as evidenced by the success he’s achieved indoors, and he is not intimidated by anyone. If he needs to mix it up, he’ll do it.

In his early career, Barcia needed to learn how to harness his speed and excitement on the track, which he was finally able to do successfully in 2012. We know he has what it takes to win, and he should enjoy a breakout season in 2013 that the industry will take notice of. However, the lengthy and grinding 17-race season will likely prove to be too stiff a challenge for Barcia to actually be a title contender.

That said, Barcia rarely gets injured, which gave him the edge over Canard in this list. Trey is definitely a rider to be considered a threat each and every weekend, but in two seasons of 450SX competition, he has yet to complete all 17 rounds. Additionally, Canard hasn’t competed in about a year following the horrific accident in Los Angeles last season, so he will also have to shake off a good deal of rust. If he’s able to break the misfortune that has unfortunately riddled his young career, Canard could very well take this spot from Barcia, but I’m leaning toward the rookie.

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Brandon Short

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